Poitiers

On Monday I went to Poitiers, the administrative capital of the neighbouring Poitou-Charentes region about an hour away by train, to meet up with Ella, a French student from Hertford who is a language assistant there.

As a town, Poitiers is immensely dull. In size it is smaller than Tours, which is about the size of Oxford or Luton, with few things to do in the city centre. On the other hand, it was great meeting up with Ella and chatting. We were never more than acquaintances at Oxford: the amount of time I spent talking to her on Monday was probably greater than the amount of time we’d ever talked to one another before. However we did get along well; we would exchange small talk before classes and I could always count on Ella to sign a few letters for Amnesty. She seemed reasonably content overall in Poitiers, except for a few minor issues such as we all have on our year abroad. I was also immensely jealous to learn that she was accommodated by her school in a spacious room with a large common area and kitchen for a mere €135/month! Although the furnishings are a little weird and she has no internet, this is amazing.

I got home from Poitiers, ate, then went out to the Cafe des langues, where we assistants usually meet each Monday evening. However, as it was the holidays, nobody I knew was there! Initially I was disconcerted but then the whole point of the night is to meet new people. I ended up talking to a Libyan with a crazy accent about Gaddafi and then met a young French-Pakistani woman who knows one of my students. Overall this was pretty brilliant.

 

Nantes

Yesterday, I went to Nantes with two German assistants. Nantes is quite a bit further down the Loire, nearly on the Atlantic, and took about two hours to get to by train. It’s also the sixth largest city in France and as such made a very nice contrast with Poitiers; it was very lively, and we actually didn’t have enough time to see everything we wanted. There’s a Chateau there where the Dukes of Brittany used to live when it was independent, which we visited, before heading to “The Machines of the Island”. This is a fantastically innovative development taking place on an island in the Loire. There are three parts, of which one has already been completed: a GIGANTIC MECHANICAL ELEPHANT. Yes, you read that right. It is three stories tall, moves it trunk and ears, and even has eyelashes. Furthermore, about forty people can sit on it at once and it takes them for rides around the island! I am so fantastically enthralled by this elephant that I can barely express myself. All cities have become so similar, with such similar attractions, that something extraordinary like this really enthuses me, and perhaps even makes me feel brighter about humanity in general and our capacity for invention and fantasy in particular. Unfortunately we couldn’t go on a ride because of the nasty weather – lots of wind and rain – but we still saw him. The two other parts of the island should be ready by 2010 and 2016 respectively; the former is a GIGANTIC carousel with several levels composed of various sea creatures, the latter a GIGANTIC metal tree covered in plants with two metallic herons on top which visitors will be able to sit on and, allegedly, fly around the tree on. So, Nantes is definitely worth checking out in the near future.

I also had a delicious Nantais meal – some regional fish for the main and something called crème nantaise which the restaurant may have invented.

The last thing we did was go to a chocolate exposition which was random and a bit of a rip-off, although we did each quite a bit of chocolate.

So yes, despite the quasi-tempest, I really enjoyed Nantes, as did the two girls (who, tangentially, sang Ode to Joy for me). We didn’t have enough time there though, so I will definitely have to go back some time.

On Tours

Now that I have settled in completely and got to know the place a lot better, my initial impressions remain true. Tours is an exceedingly beautiful town and I feel lucky to be here. The river and islands in it are beautiful, the squares are lovely, the boulageries incredible, and any town that owns wallabies and a stuffed elephant gets a thumbs up from me.

There are, however, two negative contrasts with Britain that are very striking; I think these are symptomatic of a wider problem in France and not specific to Tours. Indeed, the fact that they affect wealthy Tours as well as Paris and Marseille just goes to demonstrate how deep the problems in French society are.

Number one is the number of homeless people. I am used to seeing quite a few homeless around Oxford, but the number in Tours seems staggering. They are literally everywhere with their dogs in tow.

Number two is the numbers of mentally disturbed people. I have seen three so far, compared with only having seen one or two all the time I’ve been in Luton, and none that I can remember in Oxford. Worse, I think, is the attitude towards them. One such woman got on the bus on my way home, wearing trousers almost to her armpits and loudly singing a song. The children all started shouting “it’s the madwoman!” when they saw her. They clearly knew her and thought it acceptable to laugh at her madness. While it was funny, it was also sad. I don’t really know what should be done with crazy people – I imagine the reason I see so few is that they are kept locked away, which is as bad as letting them loose to be laughed at all day.

One positive difference, though, is the number of disabled people at work. I’ve seen three in my not incredibly large staff room: a lady in a wheelchair, a science teacher with one arm, and a man with a speech impediment probably indicative of some other problems. In England I think we would just give up on them. It’s nice seeing them mixing in the staff room and being treated like everybody else; this is, after all, the way to break down prejudices and spread understanding.

 

On Germans

Before I came to Tours, I did not know I loved Germans. I already knew a girl from Munich (who is actually English), a boy at Oxford who studies Maths and Computer Science, Christian (an internet friend for those who I know in real life) and an exchange student from some years back. The number of Germans I know has now doubled, and I have still to meet a German I dislike. Hooray for Germans!

‘Solitude is my greatest dread’ – Jean-Jacques Rousseau.

We have ten days of holidays for All Saints’. Since we broke up on Friday, the dread of solitude has compelled all of us assistants to seek one another’s company in order to compulsively DO THINGS, leaving very little time for updating LJ despite my theoretically increased free time. So, I’m going to make up for this it now.

We started on Friday night by going to Hannah’s house to eat crepes. Yes, you read that right – Hannah is an assistant, Hannah possesses a house. It has two bedrooms, two toilets, a kitchen, a living room, and only one resident. We are all exceedingly jealous, of course – her school sorted it out for her, whereas all of our schools have been utterly useless.  Anyway, she had bought a crepe machine and lots of crepes were made and eaten. There was almost English-German parity (I know all four German girls in Tours, and they are all lovely), making the English feel incredibly inferior about their language skills. I can now almost pronounce Eichhörnchen though.

Saturday was a day of lounging in Tim’s room (Tim is half-Korean, laid back, from Wales, lives in a room of 14m² in the Foyer de Jeune Travailleurs, basically a dorm) with Judith (German, wonderful). He cooked risotto and then we watched The Hangover and Role Models in succession, both silly but amusing American films aimed at teenage boys. We went to bed somewhat too late considering the next day was to involve cycling to a chateau 18 kilometres away.

On Sunday, we started by going to Velpeau market (awesome market full of deliciousness) before embarking on the epic trip. It took about an hour and a half to get there, including a short break for trying to catch lizards by their tails. Once at Villandry Chateau, we looked around the gardens, which are truly incredible and well worth the visit, as well as the interior of the chateau which was predictably dull. Then we had some ice cream... oh god. French ice cream is indescribably heavenly and puts everything in Britain to shame. We cycled back, got to Judith’s at about 5pm, cooked, ate, watched 8 Femmes in French without subtitles (resulting in confusion) and the first episode of Skins, which I’d never seen before but thought was really good. Then it was hometime.

On Monday, I was tired and lazy and did nothing all morning. In the evening, Tim and Judith came over for curry and wine, along with one of Judith’s university friends from Cologne who is currently in Rennes, not far from Tours. Then we went to the Café des langues as is usual for Monday evenings, where we met the rest of the group.

Tuesday was another day of meeting up in a large group (3 of the Germans + 1 from Rennes, 3 English) to go to the Botanical Gardens. They had wallabies and flamingos. I touched a wallaby in the face! It seemed reasonably pleased about this. Later we went to eat in a lovely little creperie about one minute from my apartment and then went to a bar.

I seem to have nothing planned for the next few days, although the only French guy I vaguely know has asked me to go to a film with him. However, come Monday, I’ll be very busy – I’m spending Monday in Poitiers with a friend from Oxford, and Tuesday in Nantes, further down the Loire, in Brittany. I haven’t seen much of France really, so it will be nice to see a few more cities.

So, I know that was entirely too much information to be interesting, but generally I am keeping busy and happy with lovely people. Here is a concise list of friends to avoid confusion in future:

Rachel – one of the first people I met. She is 22, Sheffield University (although she applied to Cambridge), from Nottingham, and one of those unfailingly friendly English protestants. She lives in North Tours with a young couple and often has to look after their son.

Judith – the German assistant at Rachel’s school. She’s from Cologne and lives quite far to the South in an apartment with 3 Frenchies. Also unerringly friendly and a good cook.

Tim – Half-Korean, from Wales, goes to King’s College (although he also applied to Cambridge). Likes saying “that’s what she said” and downloading films, eats too many kebabs, generally very amusing. Lives in the Foyer.

Diana – American from Chicago, lives in the Foyer with Tim, likes speaking Portuguese and French bread.

Hannah – German with a house! I believe she is from Stuttgart. She wants to be a French and Theology teacher in Germany afterwards. Likes English food, inexplicably!

Johanna – German from Swabia, near Mercedes. Does not like football, does like linguistics! I don’t actually know where she lives.

Maria Christina (usually just Marie) – The German assistant at my school, I haven’t seen her much of lately because her family has been over visiting. She is from Rostock on the Baltic coast in East Germany, has a strong Baltic identity and a Swedish-speaking boyfriend. Lives far in the North with a hippy family.

Well, it's been a week seen I last posted. We're in ninth week now, which is technically after the end of term, but lots of people have exams or papers to write so most people stayed on. I haven't really done much except watch lots of Peep Show and say goodbye to lots of people. I actually did some work on Tuesday, which was a slightly amazing occurance that hasn't been repeated since. We had a barbeque on Wednesday which was brilliant. Then the mathematicians all finished their exams on Thursday, so we drank lots of alcohols in Hertford's quad. After that, I went to meet the Amnesty members for a picnic and goodbye, then it was back with the mathematicians to have dinner in the Brasserie Blanc, a fairly posh French restaurant. I decided to try snails, which were delicious but so covered in garlic and herbs that I have no idea what they actually taste like. Then people came to my room for some good old Age of Empires.

Friday was the last day for most people. We went punting in South Oxford in the morning, which I'd never done before. I got the idea when I walked back home with Sabrina from East Oxford on Friday and realised that the river was a lot more beautiful in the South by virtue of going through some beautiful meadows. It's amazing that I'd been in Oxford for two years without ever walking along that path before. Anyway, punting in the meadows was beautiful and a lot easier than punting in the north. I saw a heron (I don't think I've ever seen one before, and definitely not so close up) and then we moored the punt by this tree I'm obsessed with and climbed it.

After punting, we went up North to Leckford for some sushi, by which I mean a hell of a lot of sushi. Followed by lots of goodbyes and then some age of empires again.

Saturday involved ice cream with Mike and Kristian, then more age of empires with Kristian in the evening.

So, overall, I've been having a lot of fun interspersed with a lot of saying goodbye to people. I think I'm the only person left on my floor (and possibly my building) now, so it's quite lonely. I have a few friends in a building not too far away, though, so I may visit them soon. In any case, I'm quite looking forward to Eva's visit.

I'm feeling slightly less bad about the impact of France on friendships. A lot of people have said they'll definitely be visiting me, and I think I will come back for a while when everybody has their finals. Also, facebook and Skype (which I am yet to get) mean it will be easy to stay in contact. And after all, I manage to stay in touch with Josh, Annie and all the Downers largely through the internet, so I'm sure I'll manage to do the same with others.

What am I slightly concerned about with regard to France is:
1) The location of the school. The outskirts of Tours in an industrial zone. Not the best, but I don't necessarily have to live there I guess...
2) The school itself. It's in the bottom half of all schools in France, though not in the bottom quarter. I suppose I should be grateful it's not a banlieue but I would have liked something a little more academic.
3) How iz friendship formmed?? I have no idea how to make friends in a non-academic context. All the friends I'm made so far have a consequence of going to the same school or university and being reasonably geeky. I still remember Freshers' Week, during which almost everybody went clubbing except for most of the people who were to become my friends - we stayed in and played Risk. But what happens without an establishment full of people my age? I suppose there will be teachers, and I do tend to get on very well with people older than me, but I do wonder what kind of social contact I will have outside of teaching circles. Actually, Alex, if you're reading this, any words of wisdom about your year abroad would be extremely appreciated.

I'm planning a trip to Paris for 5 days. Has anybody got any tips of places to see, things to do or either to eat?

So far I've got the obvious, touristy stuff:
Eiffel Tower
Arc de Triomphe & Champs Elysees
Notre Dame
Sacré Coeur / Montmartre
Centre Georges Pompidou
Jardin de Luxembourg
The Louvre
Perhaps a trip to Versailles...

Anything I've missed or, better still, a little more off the beaten track? Also, how much are we likely to be spending per day on food / drink / going out, excluding tourist things?

I went through two town centres hunting for a job today. Considering Luton had a population of 230 000 people, that is a very large town centre.

How many suitable vacancies did I find?

Yes. One. I have handed my CV in... let's just see what happens now.


In other news, my statistics exam today went well - I'm predicting myself anything from a very high B to a high A, which means I can afford to lose some marks in mechanics, which is very difficult!


In yet other news... er... French politics. Yes. I'm shamelessly sneaking it in now that you've already started reading. The right-wing party has kept its majority in parliament with 311 of the 577 seats, but it lost 58 seats compared to last year, compared to the Socialist gaining 70 seats! Which is an unexpected and wonderful swing to the left, but unfortunately not enough to stop Mr Sarkozy turning France into another UK.

I'll keep it brief as I know it's hard to keep you guys reading with such a title.

The French are in the middle of their legislative elections to elect their députés in the Assemblé Nationale - in English, their MPs for their House of Commons. There are 577 of these.

How it usually works is so:
France is split up into 577 areas, each of which has one representative. There are two rounds of elections. In the first round, if somebody wins more than 50% of the vote, and if turnout is greater than 50%, they immediately win the seat. If not, every candidate who got more than 12.5% of registered (not cast) votes goes on to a second round.

You can see here that this is a weird mixture of FPTP (first past the post) and... well, I don't know really. It just tries to make sure the elected official is as popular as possible.

Now, obviously, you'd think it would be quite rare to win a seat straight off at the first round of voting. Usually it is. This year, however, 110 out of 577 seats have already been won. The depressing thing? 109 of them went to the right wing UMP party and its allies - which, disgustingly, includes a far-right party who have won 2 of those seats! Only one seat went to a Socialist.

It's predicted that the UMP will control about 70% of seats. I find that incredibly stupid. FPTP democracy is stupid and doesn't represent the will of the country. 40% of people support the UMP and they get 70% of seats. Meanwhile, a party with 7.6% of the vote - that's 2 million voters! - will most likely get 0.001% of the seats. I'm not a fan of democracy, but for those who are... surely they can see that that is ludricous? A proportional-representation system would be fairer and people wouldn't have to vote tactically.

So yes, left-wing France is screwed. Goodbye unions. Hello increase is regressive taxes.


In other news, the Far Right is the third biggest party in Belgium after their recent elections, with 12% of the vote.

People are stupid really isn't such a bad motto, you know.

Lal did say "wait for the riots and the strikes." They're here.

Youths have been rioting in the major cities since the results were announced. A school was torched, hundreds of cars have been burnt, and a man was even thrown into the Rhône! All this despite the leaders of the Socialist and Communist parties appealing for an end to the riots, as they will only make the right wing more determined to enforce law and order.

The first strikes have just begun. Students at the Sorbonne University have declared a strike against the university reforms Sarkozy aims to bring in regarding the right to strike and the rights of foreign students. "It's better to act straight away. How could we block entry to the university during the holidays? It will be closed."

The Sorbonne is one of the most prestigious Unis in France, and also the place where May '68 started.

Sometimes I really love the French. I mean the strikes, not the violence.

Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Far Right candidate who got 10% of the vote in the first round, has urged his supported to abstain from voting in the second round. We've yet to see how many will listen to him, but this should be a blow to Sarkozy and a boost to Royal. Meanwhile, relations between Royal and Bayrou, the centrist, seem much stronger than Bayrou-Sarkozy. Looks promising.

or Why I Hate Sarkozy.

This will be heated. But it's an interesting read, seeing how much more exciting French politics is than British or US politics.


My dislike of Sarkozy isn't just because I'm left wing and he's right wing. That would be stupid. I respect some of the things Blair has done, so I can hardly claim to hate him. I also respect Angela Merkel as a person, for example.

But Sarkozy is so much worse then them. On the one hand, there's his personality. He is a horrible, aggressive, insulting man. More on that later, but here is a short video which makes me laugh, 1:35 minutes long. It's in French, but you can get the meaning from the way they speak:



The bit to the left says "A debate in 1993, Sarkozy uses the same dialectic of victimization and the same method of trying to steamroller his opponents. Royal puts him in his place."

In addition to that, there is his racism and classism. He's been courting the extreme-right for a long time. I mentioned before how he said he wanted to "clean out" the surburbs - wherein live mostly the poor children of Arab immigrants - of "scum." They disgust me.

If that wasn't enough, his policies, frankly, scare me. He is unlike any right-wing leader in the past because he's left the traditional seat of French politics. He "admires" Blair & the Anglo-Saxon economic models. His policies include making striking as difficult as it is in Britain, for example. Striking is part of France! Socialism is part of France. The best health care system in the world, a brilliant education system, that emphasis on society is part of France. He wants to do away with it, to make France yet another state in the American model. This is why I think this election is a matter of life and death for France; if Royal wins, she will let France continue to be France. Sarkozy wants to kill it.


In actual politics, you may remember Bayrou, the centrist third man, whose votes Royal and Sarkozy are now battling for to win the second round. I predicted that he would support Royal, but he's stayed neutral, because openly declaring a side would split his party. Several senior members of his party have already said they will vote for Sarkozy.

However, Bayrou himself accepted an offer from Royal to have a televised debate together. It took them two days to find a TV station, and Bayrou has attacked Sarkozy because he believes Sarkozy used his power and his friends in the media (another reason to distrust the man) to stop a TV chain showing the debate. He talked about the "intimidation and menace" of Sarkozy in preventing their debate being aired. He said "There are great financial and media powers around Sarkozy, and direct interventions to the television channels have been made" to prevent the debate being aired. "Sarkozy isn't even president yet. Think of how bad it will be when he is."

This seems to me as good as an endorsement for Royal. And Sarkozy, in his typical arrogant and aggressive manner, responded my attacking Bayrou and Royal with all he's got. "I see the temptation for those for whom the first round of elections did not go as well as hoped to take their revenge by creating a fog in the media. Those who are tempted by this strategy of removing democratic debate should know that I will oppose them." "There are people today who cannot accept that the French people did not choose them, who are convinced their defeat can only be the result of an odious manipulation."

He attacked the "lies" and "slander" of Royal & Bayrou, their "rancour and deceptions." "When I see people in whom one would have great difficulty to find any superiority of heart, of character or of intelligence, giving lessons, I say to myself, 'What have they done in their lives that is so admirable that it allows them to talk about me with such violence, intolerance and contempt?'"

While I am disgusted with the man, and don't doubt that he did intervene with the media, I am glad of this violent attack on Bayrou. Unable to resist the urge to insult and belittle his opponents, Sarkozy has forgotten that he needs Bayrou's supporters to vote for him to become president. Hopefully seeing his true pathetic nature will put Bayrou's supporters off.

In the words of Arlette Laguiller, head of the Workers' Struggle Party, "Sarkozy is a dangerous man." I hope the French see this and defeat the repulsive man. I cannot bear to think of him being in charge of that wonderful republic.

If you have no interest in French elections, do look away now...

Firstly, and most importantly, Ségolène Royal made it to the second round!

Sarkozy (Right) - 31.18%
Royal (Left) - 25.87%

The next two candidates were François Bayrou, the centrist who astonishingly managed to make it to third place with 18.57%, followed by Le Pen, the far-right fascist, with only 10.44%

Here's a table I made myself, showing the results according to ideology:

Affiliation	2002		2007
	votes	%	votes	%
Far Right	5,471739	19.2%	4,653733	12.67%
Moderate Right	7,209656	25.3%	11,871077	32.33%
Centre	3,598491	12.63%	6,820914	18.57%
Moderate Left	6,789088	23.83%	9,501295	25.87%
Far Left	5,429497	19.09%	3,877826	10.57%

So, I am glad Royal made it and wasn't knocked out. This was partly due to high turnout - 84% - to prevent Le Pen getting into second place again. It was partly due to smaller left-wing parties joining Royal's Socialist Party. But it was also because Royal exploited the fear of Le Pen getting to the second round again, launching an appeal to the anti-liberal left (communists, trotskyists, greens and altermondialists) to cast a "useful vote," i.e. one for her. 1.5 million of the anti-liberal left did indeed vote for her. The far-left's share of the vote fell from 19% in 2002 to 10.6%. However, I'm sure they won't regret it - she has promised the traditional left-wing policies of raising minimum wages and all that.

The Far-right also suffered this time, with their share of votes falling from 19% ro 12.7%. This was due slightly to the high turnout this time, but 800 000 of them - 15% - also chose to cast a "useful vote" this time round - for Sarkozy. Sarkozy has been courting the far right for a while now, so it's not surprising.

The centre has gained a huge number of votes. Infact, you can see some symmetry in the 2002 vote - 20-25-10-25-20. This time, though the right (moderate and extreme) keeps its 45% share of the vote, the left is down to 35%. The other 10% have defected to the centre. This is exactly why I resented Bayrou becoming a serious contender - he leans more to the left than to the right, and he split the left vote. Especially because polls showed that in the second round he could win against Sarkozy, whereas Royal would probably lose to Sarkozy.

This does, however, mean that a lot of the Bayrou vote will be anti-Sarkozy. It's the tradition in France for the unsuccessful candidates to declare who they will vote for in the second round, wich influences their followers of course. I feel confident that Bayrou will choose to support Royal, as will most of his party.

Opinion polls at the moment show that Sarkozy will get 54% in the second round, Royal 46%. I'm not worried though. I know the extreme left will support Royal (some already have pledged allegiance) but Le Pen hates Sarkozy! A French commentator said that most of the far-right would vote blank. Sarkozy is actually the son of an immigrant, so I think he'll only attract half of them at most.

On top of this, I'm confident that Bayrou will declare his allegiance to Royal rather than Sarkozy. What his party does remains to be seen, but a lot of them are leftists-in-exile.

I also think the ghettoes in France will activate themselves against Sarkozy. Sarkozy called them scum, which they didn't take too well. I feel that the traditionally apathetic poor will take to the polling booths to vote not for Royal, but against Sarkozy.

This time in 2 weeks, I think (and hope) that it will be la présidente instead of le président for the first time in French history.



A few ending things. I know I'm overexcited, but this does only happen every 5 years! Also, I don't get this excited about elections in the UK or US - France is just more interesting for a multitude of reasons.

Finally, a few interesting figures about French citizens living abroad who voted in the elections. In the US, Sarkozy got 55%! Typical. Meanwhile, liberal Canada gave Royal a 7 point lead with 38%. Most of Europe - Germany, Austria, Denmark for example - chose Royal over Sarkozy. I can't find figures for Britain.

Hooray! I remembered one of the things.

The French elections have made me think once again about the inadequacy of democracy. I won't go into all the obvious stuff - tyranny of the majority, the average person being too stupid to be able to run a country, etc.

On the news, I saw a young French woman deliberating whom to vote for. "I want to case a useful vote, which would mean Ségolène Royal and the Socialist Party. But my heart is with the Revolutionary Communist League."

This highlights the flaw in almost any democracy, which is that people have to vote tactically for who they think will get the most votes. I have no doubt that the communist parties would be quite a bit stronger if people actually thought they had a chance of winning.

The best idea I've seen to combat this is multiple rounds of voting. Whoever gets the least votes is struck off, and everybody votes again. Then, again, the candidate with the least votes is struck off and everybody votes for the remainder. This continues until there is only one left, ensuring that this one candidate has the greatest possible following in the country.

Yes, it would be horribly long and horribly expensive, but that would be proper democracy. If democracy is your kinda thing that is... Can't say it's mine, except on a local level.

French elections are very different to Britain or the USA. For one thing, they have about 10 parties.

April 22nd, in 4 days, is the first round of the presidential elections (presidential elections take place separately from elections for the Assemblé Nationale, their equivalent of the House of Commons, the lower house).

I say first round because the two candidates who gain the most votes go on to a second round, where everybody votes for one of the two. Whoever wins is president.

Now, usually, these two candidates are from the moderate left and moderate right. However, in 2002, for the first time ever, the far-right candidate made it into the second round, knocking the moderate left party, the Socialists, to third place. He beat them by just 0.5%. This shocked the world, and of course, the moderate right candidate won the second round by a huge margin.

Everybody is waiting to see if this will happen again. This time, even the moderate right candidate has shown himself to be racist. And, completely shockingly, a fourth candidate has emerged from the centre.

At the moment, polls show Sarkozy, the moderate-but-racist right in the lead with 27%, followed by Ségolène Royal from the Socialist party with 25%, the centist Bayrou with 19% and finally Le Pen, the fascist, with 15.5%.

What's notable, as I predicted, is that support has drained away from the various communist parties as the left are desperate to prevent another run off between two right wing candidates. This would usually mean the socialists would get to the second round, but Bayrou becoming a credible candidate has ruined this, as he's attracted a lot of left-leaning votes.

It's notable that in 2002, the polls said Le Pen only had about 14% support, and he still managed to get into the second round. Anything could still happen in the second round... lots of people probably lie to the pollsters because they're ashamed of voting for him.

I am of course supporting Ségolène Royal, though I wouldn't mind Bayrou. "Anything but Sarkozy" is my feeling, mirrored by much of the French left. I heard Royal admired Blair, which made me wary at first, but looking up her policies, I still support her. She only admires the sensible things Blair has done.

The Socialist Pary's logo is almost the same as that of the Second International, whose logo you see here as my userpic.